A worst-case scenario is a concept in risk management wherein the planner, in planning for potential disasters, considers the most severe possible outcome that can reasonably be projected to occur in a given situation. Conceiving of worst-case scenarios is a common form of strategic planning, specifically scenario planning, to prepare for and minimize contingencies that could result in accidents, quality problems, or other issues. In essence, it can seem like a big jigsaw puzzle.
The worst-case scenario is “[o]ne of the most commonly used alternative scenarios”.
A number of criticisms have been leveled against the use of worst-case scenarios. In some cases, a conceivable worst-case scenario within a field may be so far beyond the capacity of participants to deal with that it is not worth the effort to develop or explore such a scenario; where this is possible, it is “important to evaluate whether the development of a worst-case scenario is reasonable and desirable”. Entities that rely on such scenarios in planning may plan too conservatively to take advantage of the usual absence of such scenarios and may waste resources preparing for highly unlikely contingencies. At the extreme, it has been argued that the use of worst-case scenarios in disaster preparedness and training causes people to become conditioned to set aside ethical concerns and to over-react to lesser disasters.
Ultimately dealing with the potential of a worst case scenario arising requires that one understand game theory and game thinking and have simple tools to solve these challenges when they arise.
I found a great “survival list” of tools in an article by in an article by Graham Hiemstra in the April 27, 2017 issue of Esquire magazine. I have fleshed it out a bit and added some items from my own experiences.
You never know when you will be stranded in a broken down car, on an old country road, in the middle of nowhere.
1. Compact Jumper Cables: The Esquire article recommends JumPack by Cobra, $130 from cobra.com
Jumper cables should be in the trunk of every car. That’s a given. But what happens when your battery needs a jump and there’s no other car in sight? For precisely this scenario, there’s the JumPack from Cobra, which, despite its size, packs enough juice to jump most cars—as well as motorcycles, snowmobiles, and boats—multiple times on a single charge. In addition to the obvious jumping capabilities, the palm-sized gadget features a built-in LED flashlight with strobe and S.O.S. functions,and a powerful USB charger for mobile devices.
2. A Hand Crank Flashlight and Phone Charger: The Esquire article recommends Torch 250 Flashlight by Goal Zero, $80 from goalzero.com. A serious issue with most emergency kits is the lengths of time that often pass between uses. Though this is, of course, a good thing, the downside is batteries often drain during such periods of inactivity, and that’s the last thing you want to encounter when grabbing a flashlight in a pinch. To remedy this—in more ways than one—Goal Zero designed their Torch 250 LED Flashlight to be capable of drawing a charge from a built-in solar panel and a hand crank. Plus, it packs a USB outlet for charging mobile devices and a red light for emergency situations. In short, this flashlight/power bank is a literal life saver.
3. A Survival Manual: The Esquire article recommends US Army Survival Manual: FM 21-76, $9 from amazon.com. You might more than capable of catching a fish with a proper rod, or making a roaring fire with kindling and some newspaper, but can you build a lasting shelter with twigs, identify edible plants in the wild, or set a snare trap with a sapling? To claim insane survival skills with little effort—and as a hedge for when small emergencies get big—keep the FM21-76 Survival Manual in your glove box. Originally published in 1970 by the US Army, the field manual offers nearly 300 pages of detailed instructions and illustrations on the finer points of survival. Stuff it under your car manual, then hope it never comes in handy.
4. A 3-in-1 Cutlery Set: The Esquire article recommends Hobo Knife by KA-BAR, $26 from bestmadeco.com
There are a thousand uses for a sturdy pocket knife. Now add a folding fork and spoon to that knife and you’ve got the classic Hobo Knife. The time-tested three-in-one cutlery set breaks down into individual components capable of tackling everything from takeout to filleting a fish. Though this tool may not be Bond’s first choice in gadgetry, it might very well be the most practical item on the list.
5. A Waterproof Notebook: The Esquire article recommends: FNC-17 Waterproof Notebook by Field Notes, $10 from fieldnotesbrand.com
Sure, your phone does everything an ordinary old notebook can—and a hell of a lot more—but what happens when the battery dies? Lucky for you, the hi-vis FNC-17 notebook from Field Notes is anything but ordinary, thanks to American-made synthetic paper pages that are both water- and tear-proof. Pair it with the water and gravity defying FN-19 Space Pen from Field Notes for a solid weatherproof emergency package.
6. A Thin light blanket insulating blanket: Known as heatsheets these are the metallic looking “wraps” given to runners at the end of marathons. A similar product is known as a “space blanket” (depending on the function, also known as a Mylar blanket, first aid blanket, safety blanket, thermal blanket, weather blanket, or heat sheet). This is an especially low-weight, low-bulk blanket made of heat-reflective thin plastic sheeting. They are used on the exterior surfaces of spacecraft for thermal control as well as by people. Their design reduces the heat loss in a person’s body which would otherwise occur due to thermal radiation, water evaporation, or convection. Their compact size before unfurling and light weight makes them ideal when space is at a premium. They may be included in first aid kits and also in camping equipment. Lost campers and hikers have an additional possible benefit: the metallic surface appearance flashes in the sun, allowing use as an improvised distress beacon for searchers.
7 . Keep a small and reasonable collection of food and spices: This can include nuts, seeds and other dried fruit; ketchup, mustard, soy sauce and mayonnaise packets; A gallon of bottle watered; Ester-C – packets and powdered vitamin/mineral supplement powder; Packets of Ramon Noodles and Tofu in Aseptic packages.
8. What to Eat when you run out of food: Identifying and Harvesting Edible and Medicinal Plants in Wild (and Not So Wild) Places by Steven Brill shows readers how to find and prepare more than five hundred different plants for nutrition and better health, including such common plants as mullein (a tea made from the leaves and flowers suppresses a cough), stinging nettle (steam the leaves and you have a tasty dish rich in iron), cattail (cooked stalks taste similar to corn and are rich in protein), and wild apricots (an infusion made with the leaves is good for stomach aches and digestive disorders). The author is was a student of mine and a friend. I am mentioned in the acknowledgments of the book. The book contains more than 260 detailed line drawings help readers identify a wide range of plants — many of which are suited for cooking by following the more than thirty recipes included in this book. There are literally hundreds of plants readily available underfoot waiting to be harvested and used either as food or as a potential therapeutic. This book is both a field guide to nature’s bounty and a source of intriguing information about the plants that surround us.
Lifehack! In the end, you will save, money, save time and create greater happiness.
This was an extract from my notes on lifehacking. For a book on the subject I suggest:
“How to Hack Your Life Through Game Thinking” By Lewis Harrison. The book contains over 400 high and low-fi hacks.
– Available as an ebook at:
The Softcover version is available at:
Learn more about all of Lewis Harrison’s educational materials at: http://www.RealUGuru.com
Lewis Harrison – The RealUGuru, is a writer, mentor, success and wealth coach, content-rich, motivational speaker, and an entrepreneur specializing in problem solving, troubleshooting and strategizing based on game thinking, applied game theory and systematic thrift.
He is the author of over twenty-two books published in five languages.
Don’t forget to tune to the “Life Hack Guru Radio Show every Thursday 4-6 PM EST at WIOX 91.3 FM or on your smart device at WIOXRadio.org.
WIOX is a diverse station that broadcasts original programming including presentation from NPR, the BBC, Democracy Now etc….
If you are interested in business success in the 21st Century in the arts or in any other endeavor you need to read Lewis’ recently published business books contact him for personal coaching and mentoring. Learn more at:
You can find books on game theory, and business success here:
This course and all the offerings on http://www.RealUGuru.com focus on the application of applied game thinking, gamification, decision science, positive psychology, happiness, and visionary thinking to solve basic, complex and extreme problems. He is the creator of a free course on business success and human potential.
Here is a short interview with Lewis;
This blog is supported by a grant from Events Chair Massage (www.eventschairmassage.com). This is a company offering Anti-Stress hacks. This NYC Chair massage company offers Corporate chair massage to meeting planners, event planners, association meetings and trade shows. He also offers these stress management and onsite massage services in NYC at trade shows, and at the Javits Convention Center, Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Chicago, Dallas, Greensboro, Columbus Ohio and many other cities across the United States through www.NoStressSpeaker.com.